This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 2.5 License.
A perspective on 'Chernobyl Forum' (IAEA) material
The "Chernobyl Forum" published a balance of a nuclear disaster (Chernobyl). This balance, in my opinion and for reasons explained here, is void and very underestimated.
I am have no expertise in any pertinent matter, therefore I will only analyze established elements which are easy to understand without any particular skill.
In a hurry? Please read the short story.
Please send any comment to firstname.lastname@example.org.
The IAEA, International Atomic Energy Agency, is an United Nations' agency created in order to "accelerate and enlarge the contribution of atomic energy". It promotes civil uses of atomic energy.
The Chernobyl Forum is a group of UN agencies, founded by the IAEA and financed by it as well as by the WHO (World Organization of Health, another United Nations agency). In the present we will designate it by 'the Forum'. The Forum published the balance analyzed here.
A liquidator is a person sent near the power plant after the accident, to clear or to clean the zone. Some liquidators were particularly exposed to the radiations.
It seemed somewhat underestimated to me. I tried to enlighten this assertion.
My conclusion: assert that the disaster will kill 4000 persons, as trumpeted, is plain disinformation.
The next section contains a list summarizing the main elements supporting this conclusion, detailed in the complete document (French).
premature deaths of around 4000 people from the 600 000 affected by the higher radiation doses. These 4000 deaths are from a badly defined subset because
the higher radiations dosesis not defined. Moreover it somewhat conveys that other exposed people were and are not endangered, but it appears that 5 million exposed Soviet citizens were (and some are) exposed, along with much more people in other countries, and at least some of them were (or are/will be) somewhat endangered.
This abstract heading states that
A total of up to 4000 people could
eventually die of radiation exposure from the Chernobyl nuclear power plant
(NPP) accident nearly 20 years ago, an international team of more than 100
scientists has concluded.. The World
Health Organization (WHO) version version also contains this heading.
But the name of the authors of the abstract or report endorsing this ''up
to 4000 deaths'' hypothesis are not cited, the heading did not clearly
state that the draft report stated that those 4000 deaths are from a small
subset of the human beings concerned and for a single illnesses family, the
draft report does not contain the key sentence (''4000 will die''), the
report is presented as an UN report although it is only published by
agencies and not adopted by the UN (the IAEA has to let the UN approve its
reports, please read it statute's article
General Conference shall ... Approve reports to be
submitted to the United Nations as required by the relationship agreement
between the Agency and the United Nations, same for the WHO (its Constitution clearly states
that there is an "Agreement between the United Nations and the World Health
Organization", therefore the WHO is not the UN).
It therefore was:
Chernobyl: the true scale of the accident. 20 Years Later a UN Report Provides Definitive Answers and Ways to Repair Lives)
up to 4000 people could eventually diestance was not provided. In fact this sentence was nowhere to be found in the draft report and the report's editor (M. Repacholi), rejected it by declaring:
The scientists did not want to include numbers for predicted deaths, but public relations officials had wanted them in the summary.
4000, grand total hypothesis was largely propagated (see for example
The abstract was never rectifyed.
Chernobyl: 4000 people will die globally, although their best official minimization is now
9000 people will die from from solids cancers amongst the approx 6.6 million who were in the vicinity(solid cancers are a single family of the numerous illnesses, many others are dangerous, notwhithstanding teratogen effects. Moreover a plume of radioactive fallout drifted over parts of the western Soviet Union, Eastern and Western Europe, Scandinavia, the British Isles, and the eastern United States (far from the 6.6 million people group. Therefore ''4000 total'' is quite different from this new hypothesis).
They never published any note rectifying their own misleading press release.
Remember: we pay them (approx 240 million USD per year) to be be informed in order to decide...
Tchernobyl: 4000 deathsfalse claim published in a press release was relayed by an anonymous contributor, albeit it falsely stated that the underlying report was definitive, encompassing all illnesses and published by UN bodies.
At least a warning was proposed, without any effect.
Then, 7 months later, after release of the real definitive UN report (9000 deaths in a subset of the population and for only a family of illnesses) some history-rewriting took place, by simply replacing ''4,000'' with ''9,000', as if ''9,000'' was published since Sept. 2005, and without any account of the new perimeter (solid cancers and subset of exposed population, instead of grand total, and real UN report). Then this figure was reverted to 4,000, and any reference to critics where suppressed from the first paragraphs.
No one detailed, in the Wikipedia article, the disinformation nor the plain fact that no rectifying was published by the during or after the 7-months long period between the draft report and the UN version.
Then some chating led to a partial fix. But some dis (or mis)-information stays there, and nobody seems to care. Worse: on Wikipedia (French edition) some try to conceal or minimize the disinformation campain.